Knicks vs. Pacers Odds & Line: Proven Model Reveals Picks for NBA Matchup

The New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers meet on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026, at Madison Square Garden in a matchup that currently features some lopsided odds and strong model projections favoring the home team. Bettors, analysts, and statistical models alike are weighing in on who’s most likely to cover the spread, which side of the moneyline makes value, and whether the points total will hit the projected Over/Under for this Eastern Conference showdown.

 Game Information & Betting Lines

• Date & Time: Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026 – 7:30 p.m. ET

• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City

• TV: FDSIN / MSG

• Spread: Knicks favored by around -11.5 points

• Moneyline: Knicks heavy favorites, Pacers significant underdogs

• Over/Under: Around 223.5 to 226.5 points

This line reflects major differences in team form, with New York riding a strong recent stretch and Indiana struggling near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.

 Proven Model Picks & Predictions

A proven projection model that simulates games thousands of times has weighed in on the Knicks-Pacers showdown, offering several key insights:

• The Knicks are heavily favored to win outright, reflecting both stronger season performance and recent form.

• Spread projections suggest New York covering the double-digit line more often than not.

• On total points, simulations often lean slightly toward the Over, though the exact number can vary by model.

According to one version of the projection data, the Over/Under hits in just over half of the simulated matchups, and the Knicks cover the spread in a strong majority of scenarios — but bettors are encouraged to consult specific model outputs directly for exact percentages.

Odds Breakdown – Spread, Moneyline, Total

: Spread Analysis

The Knicks are favored by about 11.5 to 12.5 points in most books, reflecting New York’s overall performance edge. The Pacers have struggled on the road and remain near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, giving New York a clear advantage at home.

Key Spread Insights:

• Knicks are strong at home and have covered in a majority of recent games.

• Pacers’ recent road struggles make it challenging to keep this close.

• Some models even project the spread reaching -12 or more in ideal scenarios.

Moneyline Odds

Latest moneyline odds strongly favor the Knicks, with implied win probabilities often above 80%, meaning a straight Knicks moneyline wager is costly but statistically supported. Conversely, backing the Pacers yields high payouts but comes with significant risk.

Example Moneyline Snapshot:

• Knicks ML: Heavy favorite

• Pacers ML: Long underdog (+400-ish range)

 Total (Over/Under)

The projected Over/Under sits in the 223.5–226.5 range, with differing opinions from models and analysts.

• Some models lean Over, expecting both offenses to reach total point combinations above the line.

• Others argue for Under, citing New York’s ability to control tempo and defensive rebounding.

• Prop analyses suggest that a slower pace late in the game could lend itself to an Under play.

Expert & Prop Bet Picks

Analysts have also highlighted several game trends and player prop possibilities that factor into betting strategy:

🏀 Expert Picks

• Knicks are expected to win comfortably based on recent trends and lopsided standings.

• Spread pick often favors New York (e.g., Knicks ­-9.5 in some projections).

• Under picks have traction when Knicks slow the pace late.

📊 Player Prop Insights

Data indicates potential value in:

• Jalen Brunson and other Knicks scoring props due to Pacers’ defensive vulnerabilities

• Points, rebounds, assists totals for key Knicks players as stronger scoring contributors
  These props provide alternative ways to engage beyond traditional point spread and Over/Under bets.

: Betting Trends & Recent Form

Knicks Recent Performance

• Strong recent winning stretch and above-average offense.

• Balanced scoring threats from top contributors.

Pacers Recent Struggles

• Lost multiple games in a row before this matchup.

• Offensively inconsistent, making scoring runs harder against tough defenses.

Trends bolster the case for backing the Knicks both straight up and against the spread, though prudent bettors weigh all angles, including pace and props.

📊 TABLE: Knicks vs. Pacers Odds & Picks Overview

❓ FAQ Section

Q1: What are the Knicks vs. Pacers odds?
Knicks favored by ~11.5 points; moneyline leans heavily toward New York with +400-range underdog Pacers. Over/Under is around 223.5 to 226.5.

Q2: What does the proven model project?
Most simulations favor the Knicks covering the spread with a moderately strong chance of the game’s total going Over.

Q3: When and where is the game?
Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026, at 7:30 p.m. ET from Madison Square Garden in New York.

Q4: Should bettors back the Under?
Under plays gain traction with tempo control, especially if Knicks manage pace late.

Q5: Any notable player props?
Top Knicks scorers and Pacers’ key contributors could offer value in scoring and rebounds props.

🔚 Final Take

The Knicks vs. Pacers game on Feb. 10, 2026 sets up as a strong mismatch on paper — one that most models and betting lines currently favor decisively for the Knicks. Whether you’re targeting the spread, moneyline, or props, understanding current odds, trends, and model projections can help inform your picks for this Eastern Conference encounter