Bitcoin Falls Below $92,000 as 4-Year Cycle Fears Rise
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) continued to slide on Monday, dipping beneath $92,000 as its drawdown from record highs in October exceeded 26%. The decline is raising questions about whether this is still a temporary correction or the beginning of a new four-year cycle that ends with a prolonged sell-off.
Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote, “Now this self-fulfilling prophecy has led to the market selling off for bitcoin in Q4’25.” “That said we think that the evidence below the line suggests for a short term consolidation into a new local bottom – rather than the historical 60-70% drawdown as seen in past cycles. On Oct. 6, bitcoin hit a record high of more than $126,000 per token.
“This does not feel to us like a cycle top in the market.” Chhugani said. “It’s more like a structural multi-year trend of institutions participating in Bitcoin and crypto capital markets, with the market being rattled from time to time along the way.” “We were watching if Bitcoin can find a bottom near ~$80K level after the Trump election.
[the founder of WisdomTree asset management], We think that the market weakness is perhaps a good entry point for those who are new to investing.” The strategy’s (MSTR) ongoing accumulation of the cryptocurrency also lends a modicum of support, with the company having purchased an additional 8,178 tokens at an average price of $102,171 for a total of $835 million on Monday.
Meanwhile 10X Research commented that Oct 10 was the point where new buyer appetite just ground to a halt; the Fed’s sharper hawkish tone over the past days “tilts the macro balance, making the market more fragile.” “That’s why the four-year cycle deserves a good look,” according to 10X Research. “[This is the cycle] working in concert with a multitude of independent signals and conditions that are all in agreement to tell you: now is the time to be as cautious as possible.”
The Bitcoin bulls have it all — Wall Street support, political tailwinds, institutional cash. All, that is, except for a rally. Bitcoin, after peaking at $126,000 in October, has plummeted, erasing its 2025 gains. The dramatic relinquishing of record highs is just days away in a year that was supposed to solidify Bitcoin’s validity. Wall Street has shown up, exchange-traded funds are bringing crypto into mainstream portfolios and the Trump administration has wholeheartedly embraced crypto.”
Result
But the market has pulled back — swiftly, sharply and without any obvious catalyst. The total market value of bitcoin has plummeted by around $600 billion since it reached a high in October, according to data from Bloomberg. In crypto volatility is expected. What is different this time is the speed with which conviction has disappeared and the paucity of explanations that stand up.
Why Bitcoin Dropped Below $92,000 — Full Analysis & 6-Month Outlook
Bitcoin fell sharply below $92,000, triggering fresh fears that the market may be entering a new 4-year cycle downturn. After peaking at $126,000 in October, BTC has now corrected more than 26%, wiping out nearly $600 billion in market value. The sudden drop has raised questions about whether this is a normal consolidation phase or the beginning of a deeper structural correction.
Why Bitcoin Dropped Today
Analysts point to a “self-fulfilling prophecy” tied to Bitcoin’s historical halving cycles. Traders expecting a post-halving correction began selling, which accelerated the decline. The Fed’s increasingly hawkish tone also weighed heavily on risk assets, making the macro environment fragile.
Is Bitcoin Entering a New 4-Year Cycle?
Some analysts believe the correction matches early signs of previous cycle downturns. However, unlike past cycles, institutional ownership through Bitcoin ETFs and large corporate holdings is stronger than ever. This provides stability that did not exist in earlier cycles.
Will BTC Find Support Near $80K?
Many experts are watching the $80,000 level closely. Analysts from Bernstein and 10X Research suggest Bitcoin may form a local bottom around this range rather than falling into a 60–70% crash seen in older cycles.
Institutional & Political Support
Institutional ETF inflows remain steady, and the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance, including the Clarity Act, is considered a long-term tailwind. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy’s latest purchase of 8,178 BTC demonstrates strong corporate conviction.
Should New Investors Buy the Dip?
For long-term investors, the current weakness may represent a strategic entry point, though volatility remains elevated.
6-Month Bitcoin Price Outlook
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Short term (1–2 months): High volatility; potential dip toward $80K.
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Mid term (3–4 months): Stabilization expected as macro pressure eases.
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6 months ahead: Recovery toward $105K–$115K is possible if ETF inflows continue and Fed policy softens.